Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 74370.591241 78586.909446 82805.990041 87341.530508 92076.238272 96869.935606 102087.112912
2025-04-27 68142.708886 74636.432337 81319.312068 88701.163540 96616.681117 104839.851246 114018.600145
2025-05-04 63292.405777 71326.825197 79780.340537 89317.865980 99758.681953 110820.450243 123405.585704
2025-05-11 59194.262395 68337.866142 78139.610144 89395.590873 101930.434776 115426.544151 131021.670560
2025-05-18 55955.442630 65983.539163 76910.386482 89652.579143 104053.398940 119773.804268 138180.513088
2025-05-25 53123.216996 63863.207077 75740.015109 89782.554248 105863.483548 123634.021005 144684.895518
2025-06-01 51270.002186 62715.637654 75541.907915 90895.069199 108683.576150 128554.371922 152334.965232
2025-06-08 48904.566248 60835.445812 74377.568047 90780.080278 109997.171402 131684.428274 157890.267737
2025-06-15 47599.264323 60116.274382 74488.103956 92080.442035 112896.883081 136602.932154 165492.850398
2025-06-22 46122.268805 59110.941192 74190.644349 92837.450597 115111.407635 140696.712994 172128.890358
2025-06-29 44408.707819 57740.278582 73387.152624 92927.348493 116483.827969 143768.480604 177549.195233
2025-07-06 42797.312939 56424.522006 72586.627013 92962.300902 117742.267121 146672.064995 182753.593807
2025-07-13 41882.141187 55945.208706 72788.808209 94212.311468 120479.928015 151372.209949 190163.556054
2025-07-20 40993.801933 55461.842550 72956.770467 95400.180627 123135.678327 155985.043350 197502.859606
2025-07-27 39877.639959 54645.015704 72672.906114 95997.806706 125048.048268 159694.705229 203764.907127
2025-08-03 38580.521311 53548.562731 71996.388152 96067.857423 126280.461341 162561.999584 209003.412516
2025-08-10 37452.804851 52629.003652 71505.640492 96337.567608 127735.362591 165687.604862 214558.749637
2025-08-17 36329.094350 51674.942936 70935.437544 96474.746742 129000.243128 168566.563291 219812.367037
2025-08-24 35727.147804 51383.442239 71194.725102 97653.759386 131569.487579 173063.124134 227084.581582
2025-08-31 34596.287929 50351.742795 70463.934095 97531.862862 132468.251276 175470.472012 231764.397092
2025-09-07 34154.665596 50226.902913 70900.513715 98909.913304 135277.693630 180276.309202 239462.660264
2025-09-14 33498.179289 49788.071380 70905.844198 99712.052511 137342.012925 184149.855412 246010.991750
2025-09-21 32587.134434 48973.248847 70388.744011 99807.304961 138478.621697 186845.087637 251080.844477